According to a Bain & Company report, the invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and continued Covid-19 lockdowns in China could delay recovery forecasts in other regions by up to a year
The invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and continued Covid-19 lockdowns in China have pushed back forecasts for a recovery to 2019 air traffic levels by an entire year.
Bain & Company forecasts that air traffic levels will return to pre-pandemic levels until the second quarter of 2025, which is 12 months later than the previous forecast.
The report reveals that, under current conditions, global airline revenues by 2022 will reach $488 billion, representing an increase of 8% compared to the previous forecast. This figure would represent 73% of 2019 revenue.
According to Bain & Company’s recovery scenarios, it is estimated that by the end of 2022, global air travel demand could recover up to 80% of 2019 levels and up to 87% in the most optimistic scenario.
According to the analysis of the American consulting firm, in April 2022 the world demand for air travel remains at 57.71% of the 2019 levels, and for May an increase of 3.6% would be registered, reaching a recovery to 61.37%.
Air demand from the North American intra-regional market in April 2022 is estimated to remain at 89.14% of 2019 levels; while for May 2022 it would reach 91.81%, implying in turn an increase in the recovery of 2.67%, in contrast to the indices of the previous month.
In addition, it is expected that by the end of 2022, the North American intra-regional market will register a demand at 97.79% of 2019 levels, being the market with the best recovery projection worldwide for the end of the year.